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Market generally solid
6/30/2008

By Mark Ferguson
COIN VALUES Market Analyst

Nobody can predict the future of the coin market with absolute certainty. We're still in a 5-year-old bull market trend, which is very lengthy in terms of past coin market cycles. And as we all know, the general world-wide economic climate is dismal.

Certain areas of the coin market are feeling the pinch, but overall the market still has solid support from eager buyers. As reported in the June 23 issue, collectors of average means are left with less disposable income to use for purchasing coins because they're having to struggle with much higher living costs. This reality has slowed business in some areas, but has generally not affected values in the overall coin market.

Few market bubbles are apparent that could burst, taking values down. A possible exception could be in the registry market for modern coins (those struck since the 1960s).

Coins graded as perfect Mint State and Proof 70 lack dealer buyback support, and the supply grows as more are graded as such, which could lead to a correction in market values for particular coins that have advanced to levels beyond ridiculousness, according to many seasoned collectors and dealers.

One example of this excess is a 2003 Lincoln cent, graded MS-70 by Professional Coin Grading Service, which sold in September 2006 in a Teletrade auction for $15,120. The mintage for this coin issue is a huge 3.3 billion.

While most people call $15,120 a "ridiculous" price to pay for a modern cent, we don't know the motives of the buyer, nor his or her financial position. However, it's quite likely that this price is very small in relation to the buyer's net worth.

The market for legitimately rare coins, such as rare gold that sells for hundreds of thousands of dollars and more, is supported by numerous well-to-do buyers. As the general sentiment among those involved in the current coin market is an expectation of high inflation, which helps values rise, the coin market probably has an excellent near-term future.

At this point, only a catastrophic economic reversal would appear to threaten the health of the coin market. With the ability of the Federal Reserve System and the federal government to stimulate the economy, it's more likely that most people will remain employed and the population will adjust to economic challenges we face these days.

 
 

 
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